A rollercoaster Week 1 of the college football season is nearing completion, with a top-10 matchup between No. 5 LSU and No. 8 Florida State tonight, and No. 9 Clemson vs Duke tomorrow night.
The Big Ten schedule is complete. While most of the conference is 1-0 after the week, some out-of-conference matchups were far from a cakewalk. And then there’s Purdue, who lost to Fresno State in Ryan Walters’ debut as head coach.
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ESPN’s Football Power Index is continuously updating as games go final. It is a good barometer for how much Ohio State struggling with Indiana, for example, matters. And whether Nebraska’s 13-10 loss to Minnesota actually is a good sign for the rest of the season.
Related: Five takeaways from Wisconsin football’s season-opening win over Buffalo
For Wisconsin, the 38-17 win over Buffalo came with some mixed reviews. The first half was nothing close to pretty, but the team did pull away in the second half thanks to huge games from both Chez Mellusi and Braelon Allen.
Now that Week 1 is complete, here are the updated game-by-game win probabilities for the Badgers for the rest of the season:
Sep 10, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Washington State Cougars quarterback Cameron Ward (1) tosses the football under pressure from Wisconsin Badgers linebacker Nick Herbig (19) during the third quarter at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Matchup predictor: 63.3% Wisconsin wins (was 69.9% entering Week 1)
Date: Sept. 9
Washington State FPI Rank: No. 52
Washington State’s 2023 record: 1-0
Georgia Southern coach Clay Helton watches the team during the Eagle’s first spring practice on Saturday March 25, 2023 at Paulson Stadium. Credit: Richard Burkhart/Savannah Morning News-USA TODAY NETWORK
Matchup predictor: 88.9% Wisconsin wins (down from 90%)
Date: Sept. 16
Georgia Southern FPI Rank: No. 80
Georgia Southern’s 2023 record: 1-0
Purdue Boilermakers quarterback Hudson Card (1) breaks the tackle of Fresno State Bulldogs linebacker Levelle Bailey (6) during the NCAA football game, Saturday, Sept. 2, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Fresno State Bulldogs won 39-35. Credit: Alex Martin/Journal and Courier-USA TODAY NETWORK
Matchup predictor: 72.7% Wisconsin wins (up from 63.1%)
Date: Sept. 22 (Friday)
Purdue FPI Rank: No. 61
Purdue’s 2023 record: 0-1
Sep 10, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers logo on a flag prior to the game against the Washington State Cougars at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 3, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano before the game against the Northwestern Wildcats at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Matchup predictor: 89.4% Wisconsin wins (up from 88.8%)
Date: Oct. 7
Rutgers FPI Rank: No. 76
Rutgers’ 2023 record: 1-0
Iowa Hawkeyes punter Tory Taylor (9) kicks the ball as the Hawkeyes take on Utah State at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Saturday, Sept. 2, 2023. Credit: Zach Boyden-Holmes/The Register-USA TODAY NETWORK
Matchup predictor: 69.6% Wisconsin wins (up from 66.9%)
Date: Oct. 14
Iowa FPI Rank: No. 44
Iowa’s 2023 record: 1-0
Sep 2, 2023; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) runs with the ball during the first half against the Toledo Rockets at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Matchup predictor: 62.1% Wisconsin wins (up from 58.6%)
Date: Oct. 21
Illinois FPI Rank: No. 47
Illinois’ 2023 record: 1-0
Ohio State’s Kyle McCord (6) throws during the second half of the Indiana versus Ohio State football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 2, 2023. Credit: Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times-USA TODAY NETWORK
Matchup predictor: 14.7% Wisconsin wins (up from 13.7%)
Date: Oct. 28
Ohio State FPI Rank: No. 2
Ohio State’s 2023 record: 1-0
Indiana’s Andre Carter (1) celebrates a tackle during the second half of the Indiana versus Ohio State football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 2, 2023. Credit: Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times-USA TODAY NETWORK
Matchup predictor: 72.2% Wisconsin wins (down from 77.2%)
Date: Nov. 4
Indiana FPI Rank: No. 63
Indiana’s 2023 record: 0-1
Sep 3, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Northwestern Wildcats interim coach David Braun shakes hands with Northwestern Wildcats wide receiver Jack Kennedy (1) before the game at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Matchup predictor: 82.5% Wisconsin wins (down from 83.2%)
Date: Nov. 11
Northwestern FPI Rank: No. 65
Northwestern’s 2023 record: 0-1
Aug 31, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers running back Gabe Ervin Jr. (22) runs the ball against the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the second quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Matchup predictor: 76% Wisconsin wins (down from 77.7%)
Date: Nov. 18
Nebraska FPI Rank: No. 51
Nebraska’s 2023 record: 0-1
Aug 31, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers defensive back Tyler Nubin (27) celebrates a stop against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the fourth quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Matchup predictor: 58.8% Wisconsin wins (up from 52.6%)
Date: Nov. 25
Minnesota FPI Rank: No. 43
Minnesota 2023 record: 1-0
MADISON, WISCONSIN – SEPTEMBER 02: Braelon Allen #0 of the Wisconsin Badgers celebrates his 22 yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter against the Buffalo Bulls at Camp Randall Stadium on September 02, 2023 in Madison, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
FPI Rank: 23
Projected W-L: 8.6-3.9
% Chance…
- Wisconsin wins out: 0.5
- Six or more wins: 94.5
- Win Big Ten West: 45.5
- Win Big Ten: 8.4
- Makes College Football Playoff: 2.4
- Win National Title: 0.2
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