With NFL kickoff essentially here, we wanted to gather our experts for a final roundtable, where we could address the late-preseason risers, throw out some buzzy player stat line over/unders and finally get to the bottom of the blue cheese vs. ranch debate before your draft day feast.
The participants: Michael Salfino, Renee Miller, Jake Ciely, Brandon Funston and Jake Paul. Yes, that Jake Paul. We were intrigued by his foray into fantasy and betting — he is co-founder of Betr, after all. This isn’t a stunt — we scrutinized his responses thoroughly, and he knows his stuff. So jump in, maybe have your opinion changed and get ready for the homestretch.
1. You discover time travel and use it to go back to the beginning of August and tell yourself to draft more of ________ because ________.
Salfino: Courtland Sutton. The Broncos receiving room has been ravaged and Jerry Jeudy is expected to be out “weeks.” I think Sutton is protected if Russell Wilson is bad again, and what if he’s good again? Sutton had more targets than Jeudy last year.
Funston: Josh Jacobs because his contract situation is going to be resolved. I missed out on him at a discount in a couple drafts, and I’m kicking myself a little bit now because I generally hold the belief that contract stuff typically gets figured out before the season. Of course, sometimes it’s hard to act on your beliefs when you are actually on the draft clock. And sometimes the situation turns out like Jonathan Taylor’s … and Le’Veon Bell’s before that.
Paul: Josh Jacobs because he was heavily discounted due to the threat of him holding out. I really like Jacobs, a borderline first-round pick who fell to the third and even fourth throughout August. He’s back and is the key cog, alongside Davante Adams, for a potentially underrated Raiders offense with Josh McDaniels coming back for his second season.
Ciely: Marvin Mims because of the injuries to Broncos wide receivers giving him a path to starting immediately.
2. Why is Alexander Mattison — a presumed bell cow back who averages over 4 ypc in his career — going so late?
Salfino: Our founding father is a ham and egger. We all wanted him as a guy who could get a lot of touches if anything happened to Dalvin Cook. Now he has the job to himself. But few seem to think he’s a proactive starter, talent-wise. He’s my RB15, by the way, and has been all draft season. But it’s a weak field.
Miller: I used Mattison as my biggest ADP discrepancy in the last roundtable. I can’t explain it, but I love it. Minnesota has always had enough offense to support a top-tier fantasy back, and when Mattison got his chances in 2021 he was fantastic.
Funston: I think there is some hesitation because, while he has looked good in spots filling in for Dalvin Cook, he’s unproven as a 225-250 carry bell cow back. He’s in the same range as Cam Akers, Rachaad White and J.K. Dobbins, who you could say the same thing about. The RBs going ahead of him have either already proven their bell cow credentials or are getting the new toy boost — Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson.
Paul: I think there are just better options at the RB position going even later than Mattison. All reports point to the team wanting Mattison to be the bell cow, which is what we look for in fantasy football, but he also needs to produce. The 3.8 ypc last year is concerning, and he’s also never flashed all that well in the passing game. My concern is one of the younger guys on the team ultimately taking over for him and their recent signing of Myles Gaskin. I’m targeting other young running backs like James Cook, who is dominating snaps for the Buffalo Bills, and Rachaad White, a three-down workhorse with receiving skills for the Bucs, over Mattison.
Ciely: Because it’s not a guarantee his ability translates to a bell cow role, and Ty Chandler could mix in a decent chunk.
3. In honor of our Very Special Guest Jake Paul, who just launched his Betr picks fantasy game, let’s do some over/unders!
1. Sam Darnold games started: 8.5
1. Salfino: I’ll take over on Sam Darnold because Brock Purdy is physically limited and Darnold very talented.
2. Miller: UNDER — I don’t believe Brock Purdy will be benched based on performance, so an over bet here is a bet on injury.
3. Funston: UNDER — Number is just a little strong. I’d guess Darnold gets five to six starts.
4. Paul: UNDER — Brock Purdy balled out last year, and I expect him to continue doing so this year. He fits Shanahan’s scheme very well, and I think at this point he’s proven himself to be for real.
5. Ciely: Way under unless Brock Purdy gets hurt again.
2. Russell Wilson passing yards: 3,810.5
1. Salfino: Under on Wilson, who will be benched for Jarrett Stidham
2. Miller: UNDER — I stand with those who think Sean Payton can get this offense to function better than last year, but this is a great line. Wilson has exceeded 3,800 yards only five times out of 11, last in 2020. When in doubt, I bet the under.
3. Funston: OVER — Just barely. He only needs to average around 224 yards per game to get there, and I’m guessing he’ll be closer to 240 (he was 235 last year). The DNPs are the X-factor — if he misses another 2-plus games, he’ll be under.
4. Paul: OVER — I’m not convinced we are going to get a full-on Russell Wilson renaissance, but he threw for over 3,500 yards last season, and he was dreadful. Sean Payton should help Russ bounce back, and I really like the Marvin Mims addition next to Jeudy (when he gets back) and Sutton to give him a nice stable of weapons.
5. Ciely: Over by 200+ as Sean Payton resurrects his career.
3. Marvin Mims receiving yards: 915.5
1. Salfino: Under on Mims’ receiving yards — 916 is a very big number for a rookie wideout (27 rookies this century went over).
2. Miller: UNDER — See above. Everything has to go right for this over to hit, while any number of things could go wrong to tank it.
3. Funston: UNDER — I don’t think he’ll get close, as it sounds like Jerry Jeudy’s injury won’t extend too long into the season.
4. Paul: UNDER — I am a big fan of Mims and his game, but this is a lot to ask for from a rookie WR. Too much working against him — will Russ bounce back? If he does, he still needs to compete with Jeudy, Sutton and Javonte Williams for touches and targets. Big fan of Mims, but taking the under here.
5. Ciely: Under. Jeudy is the only one I have topping 900 yards, and not by much due to Week 1 questions.
4. Dalvin Cook rushing yards: 815.5
1. Salfino: Over on Dalvin Cook, even in a two-man committee. I see 475 RB carries for the Jets minimum, so he needs 185 carries at 4.4 per carry to beat that, and he’ll do that easily.
2. Miller: OVER — He’ll be the early lead back and continue to get some change-of-pace work, so if he plays all year, this line is achievable (about 48 yards per game).
3. Funston: UNDER — I think Cook and Breece Hall will push up close to this number but fall just short.
4. Paul: This is a great line. I’m going to take the UNDER. Breece Hall is the lead dog there, and I think it will be tough for two guys on the team to clear this number. Rodgers will be throwing the ball a lot, too, and I really love Garett Wilson to go wild this year.
5. Ciely: Under, but pretty close.
5. Kadarius Toney targets: 71.5
1. Miller: UNDER — Even if I was optimistic enough to bet on Toney’s injury history miraculously clearing up, there are a lot of talented hands to feed in KC. Last year Mahomes showed an infuriating tendency to lightly spread the ball around to receivers not named Kelce, and if Toney isn’t ready for Week 1, Skyy Moore and MVS will be that much higher in the pecking order.
2. Funston: To be honest, I’ve just completely written him off as a perpetual health liability.
3. Paul: UNDER — I just don’t think he can stay healthy enough to hit this number, but man, he is fun to watch when he is on the field. Hope he goes over, but I’m taking the under.
4. Ciely: Under, but pretty close again. Health is a major issue.
4. Who would you rather have as your third QB in a SuperFlex? Sam Howell, Jimmy Garoppolo or Baker Mayfield?
Salfino: Garoppolo is third all time in ypa in NFL history (min. 1,500 attempts), and also, follow the money. He’s not getting benched.
Miller: I have Garoppolo in this slot in two SuperFlex leagues (one dynasty, one redraft), so I guess I have to say that, but honestly, I think Howell is the QB with more potential. If your QB 1 and 2 are no-doubt weekly starters, take Garoppolo as a competent bye-week fill-in, but if you waited on the first two, you’ll want the upside of Howell as a potential starter. Sorry Baker, not even a thought on you.
Funston: I’m part of the Sam Howell gang, one hundred percent. I could have included him as my answer to Question 1, because he has always been my QB3 target in SuperFlex, but that has become such a tough acquisition as of late because his bandwagon has gone beyond capacity in August.
Paul: I’m going Sam Howell. In fantasy, QBs who run the ball are the ultimate cheat code, and Sam Howell has sneaky rushing upside. His last year at UNC he ran for over 800 yards and 11 TDs. With (Eric) Bieniemy bringing some of the Chiefs offense, (Jahan) Dotson and (Terry) McLaurin out wide and (Antonio) Gibson and (Brian) Robinson in the backfield, he checks all the boxes for a late-round QB with big upside.
Ciely: Howell by a mile. Only one of these has the chance to be a QB1, and it’s Howell with his Ben Roethlisberger style, assets and dose of rushing.
5. You started your draft with two WRs, an RB, a TE and then another RB. What’s your move for the sixth round in this 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 QB league?
Salfino: Over my dead body do I draft two RBs in the first five rounds in Flex 10. So of course it’s a WR. In my last draft, in the Greenwich Street Tavern/Chris Vaccaro league, I went (Ja’Marr) Chase, (DK) Metcalf, (Amari) Cooper, (Elijah) Moore, (Drake) London to start (three WR and two flexes).
Miller: The sixth round is the worst, lol. I’m imagining I have like Stefon Diggs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mark Andrews (if I don’t get Andrews in the third, I’m not taking a TE until much later), Jahmyr Gibbs and Alexander Mattison. I’ll be drafting a WR in the sixth — hopefully Diontae Johnson, whom I expect to lead an improved Steelers offense in targets and catches.
Funston: I’m six rounds in sans a QB, which means I’m full-blown late QB at this point — I rarely pluck one in Round 7. That means I’m best on the board at RB or WR, but definitely giving preference to the WR spot since I still need to fulfill a starting WR slot. That said, I’ll take another RB (for my bench) over a starting WR if the RB option is a tier above what remains at WR.
Paul: I’m just going to take the best player available on the board. Maybe Mike Evans, Tyler Lockett or Chris Godwin here, but really depends how the board falls and which quarterbacks are available.
Ciely: Not avoiding the question, but this is 100 percent dependent on how the draft is falling. If a Top 6 QB is there, I’d consider that, but I’d even consider a third RB if someone of great value is there.
6. Do you find it abhorrent that some people dip their chicken wings in ranch and not blue cheese?
Salfino: I do not and can barely tell the difference if the wings are molten like I like them. I do prefer blue cheese.
Miller: Yes, one hundred thousand percent. Ranch has its place in the dressing game, but not near my chicken wings. I think I’m closest to Buffalo, N.Y., so my word really should be the final word on this.
Funston: I prefer blue cheese, but as someone who puts ketchup on my hot dogs and has to endure so much sanctimony from hot dog “traditionalists,” I’m not going to be a hypocrite and admonish anyone who prefers ranch for their wings. I think our society could benefit a lot right now from everyone just stepping down off their high horse — live and let live!
Paul: I actually think it’s abhorrent for people to use blue cheese instead of ranch. Ranch on chicken wings is a GOAT sauce.
Ciely: I find it abhorrent that anyone uses moldy, cheese goop for anything. Keep your high horse, stinky ass, disgusting cheese fingers self away from me.
7. On your 3 WR fantasy team this year, would you rather have Patrick Mahomes and all the Giants WRs or Daniel Jones and all the Chiefs WRs?
Salfino: What kind of Frankenstein is this? I’d rather have Mahomes even if he’s throwing to my grandmother, my Aunt Barbara and our kitten Angel (very athletic).
Miller: This is messing with my mind, but I’ll go Mahomes and the Giants WRs. Brian Daboll is known for adjusting the system to suit his players’ skills, and there’s no denying this group has talent. If key guys like Parris Campbell and Isaiah Hodgins step up and exciting speedster Wan’Dale Robinson ramps up, I believe this could be a very exciting group for fantasy.
Funston: Mahomes and Giants WRs — good question. Looking at this in a half-assed scientific manner, Mahomes plus New York Giants receivers scored a total of 823.7 half-PPR points in Yahoo last season. Daniel Jones plus KC receivers tallied 748.4. Do the offseason changes to each team’s WR group move the meter here enough to bridge that 75.3-point gap? In my opinion, it does not.
Paul: Give me Mahomes and anyone. I think both Chiefs and Giants have some talented WRs but questions on how the targets will be distributed, so give me the No.1 QB on the planet as the easy choice here!
Ciely: Mahomes because the Chiefs WRs and Giants WRs won’t equal the gap difference of Mahomes to Jones.
(Top photo: RJ Sangosti / MediaNews Group / The Denver Post via Getty Images)
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