We're now just over two weeks away from Jake Paul's next boxing match.
The social media influencer, who has become one of the most talked-about figures in the sport, is set for a fight with former UFC star Nate Diaz on Aug. 5 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.
Like all of Paul's fights, this one has been the subject of some criticism, as Diaz will be making his boxing debut with significant disadvantages in terms of size and age. Paul is just 26 and has weighed in as heavy as 192 pounds for previous fights. Diaz is 38 and did his best work in the UFC's 155-pound lightweight division, where he once contended for the title.
Still, both men are big stars in the combat-sports sphere. Their fight is likely to do big business regardless of whether it's considered legitimate by purists or not.
It's anyone's guess who will come out on top in this boxing spectacle, but a closer look at Paul and Diaz's fighting styles provides some interesting insights.
Keep scrolling to see how they match up on paper and for our prediction.
Let's start by breaking down the technical side of Paul vs. Diaz.
If this were an ordinary fight, it would be tough to fit all the technical nuances of the matchup into a few paragraphs. But Paul and Diaz are both novices compared to best boxers in the world, so there isn't nearly as much to break down.
Both guys have a pretty straightforward approach to boxing.
Paul, as we've seen over his seven pro boxing matches, has a great right hand. He throws it fast and with a ton of power, and he has gotten better at landing it.
Just look at his knockout of Tyron Woodley, the most recent KO on his record. He set up that fight-ending right hand by faking his jab. It wasn't a lucky shot.
While we're on the subject, his jab is also decent. The fact that he regularly jabs at all is a good sign for such an inexperienced fighter. The fact that he varies his jab is an even better sign. He is not an advanced boxer—that became abundantly clear in his recent split-decision loss to Tommy Fury—but he does some things quite well and is clever enough to build strategies around those things.
Diaz has never had a pro boxing match, so tape study on him isn't possible. However, his body of work in the UFC gives a good sense of how he will approach his first trip to the ring.
Whereas Paul remains a bit clunky and plodding in his movement, Diaz moves well and chains strikes together well. Those skills are as important in MMA as they are in boxing.
Diaz understands the importance of attacking the body and favors high-volume salvos over knockout shots. In fact, he has landed the thirst-most strikes in UFC history at 2487. Those weren't all punches, but that figure still paints a clear picture of his approach to fighting.
It's difficult to say which of these two fighters has the better technique since we've never seen Diaz in a boxing match. Still, he was known for his boxing in the UFC, and there's reason to believe that will translate from the cage to the ring.
If that's the case, Diaz should be the slightly sharper man in this fight.
Edge: Diaz
In MMA, Diaz was known for his incredible toughness. While he is quick to bleed, he's incredibly difficult to stop and has never been knocked clean out in 35 pro fights. Not even a flush head kick from Josh Thomson could do it.
Toughness often implies poor defense. After all, you don't need to rely on toughness if you aren't getting hit.
Diaz got hit a lot in the UFC. He absorbed an average of 3.77 significant strikes per minute, per UFCStats.com, and had a striking defense rate of 52 percent, which is worse than any of his last five opponents—even his fellow glutton for punishment, Tony Ferguson.
Maybe he will be more defensively responsible in boxing, but we don't know.
Stats on Paul's defense are not as readily available as they are for Diaz. However, he has yet to be knocked out or even seriously hurt in any of his fights.
That goes without saying when it comes to his fights with YouTuber AnEsonGib and former UFC star Ben Askren, who is known for his horrendous striking. But surviving fights with the likes of Woodley, Anderson Silva and Tommy Fury is a good look. Paul definitely leaves himself open when he throws power shots, but he's been able to stay out of trouble so far.
It's again difficult to definitively comment on which guy has the advantage in this department. Based on the information available, we have to give the edge to Paul.
Edge: Paul
It's been difficult to determine which of Paul and Diaz will be the more technical, more defensively sound boxer on Aug. 5. Thankfully, we know which of the two has the advantage in terms of raw power.
That advantage is all Paul's.
From early on in his boxing career, Paul has clearly possessed one-punch knockout power. Nate Robinson, Ben Askren and Tyron Woodley all discovered that the hard way.
Most of Paul's power currently resides in his right hand. He likely has a lot of power in his left as well, but we haven't seen as much of it.
Meanwhile, Diaz has never been known for his power. He picked up a handful of TKO wins in MMA, but those were typically the product of a prolonged, high-volume attack.
In a shootout, he'll be outgunned.
Edge: Paul
There was good reason to question Paul's cardio in the early days of his boxing career when he was scoring quick knockouts in most of his fights. But we've now seen him go the distance against Woodley, Silva, and Fury, with the latter two bouts featuring plenty of action.
It remains to be seen how he holds up in a fight where he absorbs a ton of punishment, but he has proved he can fight at a good pace for at least eight rounds. He and Diaz will have 10 rounds to work with.
Those last two rounds could be an X-factor for Paul, but it's hard to imagine them being a problem for Diaz. The UFC legend has always been known for his cardio.
Diaz went five rounds a number of times—most notably against Leon Edwards and Conor McGregor—and those were five-minute rounds, not three. He wasn't just punching, either. He was kicking, grappling and fighting off takedowns, which requires another level of stamina.
Diaz has proved many times that he can go the distance, and it's hard to imagine that changing here. He should be able to handle 10 rounds with Paul and will probably do his best work down the stretch—provided he doesn't get knocked out first.
Edge: Diaz
Paul's X-Factor: Be a Bully
Paul will be the bigger, taller, stronger man in the ring. He needs to use those traits to his advantage. That means punishing Diaz with big, heavy shots and bullying him in tie-ups.
Clinch work rarely excites fans, but Paul has shown he has a good understanding of it. While Diaz's MMA experience could make him effective in those situations, he will be at a big disadvantage in terms of strength.
Diaz's X-Factor: Make It Nasty
Diaz's advantages in terms of toughness and big-stage fight experience are as clear as Paul's physical tools. He must capitalize on those advantages.
In the early going, that will mean either avoiding Paul's power shots—or eating them—and firing back with high-volume attacks to the body and head. Doing so will both deplete Paul's energy and perhaps frustrate him. That will make it easier for the Diaz to take control of the fight down the stretch, at which point his gas tank should still be in good shape.
You can imagine how an inexperienced fighter like Paul will feel in the last few rounds if he has burned through all his energy and Diaz is still marching forward and stinging him with shots to the body.
Diaz could win this one. He was a solid boxer in MMA, and his less tangible traits like endurance, toughness and experience should bolster his technical ability.
But we still have to give Paul the upper hand. He's going to have some pronounced physical advantages, and he has become a decent enough boxer that he should be able to land his shots, even if he finds himself at a slight technical disadvantage against the former UFC star.
Paul's win over Silva was particularly encouraging in terms of his chances in this one. Silva is older than Diaz, but he was bigger, faster, more powerful, more experienced and altogether better than Diaz in MMA.
If Diaz were 20 pounds heavier and/or a bit younger, he would be the obvious choice to win this fight. The big question is how much punishment he'll be able to withstand.
We'll give Diaz the benefit of the first few rounds—not confidently—but it's hard to imagine this one going all 10.
Prediction: Paul by TKO, Rd. 7
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