Mike ClayESPN Writer12 Minute Read
What are the fantasy expectations for Christian Watson?
Mike Clay is high on Christian Watson's fantasy value for his second season.We're closing in on the start of the 2023 NFL regular season, which means it's time for "The 192."
What is The 192? Fantasy football leagues come in all shapes and sizes, but many have settled into the vicinity of 12 teams and 16 roster spots. The 192 is a list of the 192 players who should be drafted (and thus rostered) in a 12-team, 16-round, PPR league with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings. The players are technically listed in the order they should be drafted, although it's important to remember that drafts are fluid and your decisions should be altered based on what's left on the board and your previous selections.
What if you're in an eight-team league? Or a 16-teamer? The 192 can still help you win, but you'll certainly need to make tweaks in the middle-to-late rounds. For example, in a smaller league you might want to wait even longer at quarterback because the position is so deep. In deeper leagues, running backs and tight ends should be more of a priority, as those positions lack depth and could leave you with a weak spot if you wait until late.
The 192 should serve as a simple guide to help you maximize the value of your starting lineup while making the best possible decision in each round.
For a deeper look, check out Cheat Sheet Central, as well as round-by-round analysis via my Ultimate Draft Board.
1. Justin Jefferson, MIN, WR1
2. Ja'Marr Chase, CIN, WR2
3. Austin Ekeler, LAC, RB1
4. Christian McCaffrey, SF, RB2
The No. 1 pick isn't as clear-cut as it normally is, but, especially with many top running backs nearing the age-27/28 cliff, it's as fine a year as ever to pivot to wide receiver with your first pick. Reigning top-scoring fantasy WR Jefferson is my top choice, with Chase just behind. If you want to go running back, Ekeler (who has 12 more TDs than any other player over the past two seasons) and McCaffrey are your top options.
5. Travis Kelce, KC, TE1
6. Cooper Kupp, LAR, WR3
7. Tyreek Hill, MIA, WR4
8. Bijan Robinson, ATL, RB3
9. Saquon Barkley, NYG, RB4
10. Derrick Henry, TEN, RB5
Kelce is the oldest non-quarterback who will be in fantasy lineups in most formats this season, but he proved he hasn't lost a step by outscoring the next-closest tight end by more than 100 fantasy points in 2022. He remains worthy of a first-round pick. ... Kupp and Hill round out the top tier at wide receiver. ... RBs Barkley and Henry are fine options, and first-round rookie Robinson is perhaps the most intriguing. All six RBs selected in the top 10 of the NFL draft since 2011 have gone on to finish top 10 in fantasy points as rookies.
11. Davante Adams, LV, WR5
12. Tony Pollard, DAL, RB6
13. Stefon Diggs, BUF, WR6
14. Nick Chubb, CLE, RB7
15. CeeDee Lamb, DAL, WR7
16. Garrett Wilson, NYJ, WR8
17. Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET, WR9
18. A.J. Brown, PHI, WR10
The first round into second round turn is extremely strong. Adams, Diggs, Lamb, St. Brown and Brown are established WR1 options, and Wilson is primed for a big leap after finishing sixth among WRs in targets as a rookie and landing a QB upgrade in the form of Aaron Rodgers. ... Pollard and Chubb were further solidified as RB1 plays after the offseason departures of Ezekiel Elliott and Kareem Hunt, respectively.
19. Josh Jacobs, LV, RB8
20. Jonathan Taylor, IND, RB9
Two of the riskier picks in fantasy this season. Jacobs led the NFL in touches last season, but he hasn't practiced and has been holding out for a new contract. Taylor is also looking for a new deal and remains at odds with the team after asking for a trade. Both are likely to play this season at some point, but when they'll return is an unknown. Until we get a better feel on the timeline, both should be viewed as late-second-round targets.
21. Jaylen Waddle, MIA, WR11
22. DK Metcalf, SEA, WR12
23. Tee Higgins, CIN, WR13
24. Chris Olave, NO, WR14
25. DeVonta Smith, PHI, WR15
Some drafters prefer a late pick so they can lock down two star players, but the second round is so strong that you should be able to land two or three stars even if you pick early in the first. That's especially the case at wide receiver, as Waddle, Metcalf, Higgins, Olave and Smith are all in the WR1 discussion despite significant target competition.
26. Patrick Mahomes, KC, QB1
27. Josh Allen, BUF, QB2
28. Jalen Hurts, PHI, QB3
The "big three" at quarterback will generally cost you a mid-to-late second-round pick this year. Keeping in mind the aforementioned top 25 players, that means a hefty opportunity cost. Any of these QBs would be fine if they make it to the third round, but there will be some better values later.
29. Joe Mixon, CIN, RB10
30. Travis Etienne Jr., JAC, RB11
31. Najee Harris, PIT, RB12
32. Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, RB13
33. Aaron Jones, GB, RB14
34. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE, RB15
35. Deebo Samuel, SF, WR16
36. Calvin Ridley, JAC, WR17
37. Keenan Allen, LAC, WR18
38. Mark Andrews, BAL, TE2
39. Lamar Jackson, BAL, QB4
40. Joe Burrow, CIN, QB5
We're into the third and fourth round, which means the tiers will start to get bigger and you can pick your favorite targets while adjusting based on the flow of your draft. Mixon, Etienne, Harris, Gibbs and Jones are fringe RB1/2 options, and the same goes for Stevenson, who fell only a few spots after the arrival of Elliott. ... Samuel and Ridley are looking for rebound seasons, and the latter continues to work his way up the draft board after impressing all offseason. They join Allen as solid WR2 plays. ... This is a good spot to consider Andrews, as well as two good QB values in Jackson and Burrow.
41. Amari Cooper, CLE, WR19
42. Jerry Jeudy, DEN, WR20
43. Christian Watson, GB, WR21
44. DeAndre Hopkins, TEN, WR22
45. Chris Godwin, TB, WR23
46. Dameon Pierce, HOU, RB16
47. Breece Hall, NYJ, RB17
48. Rachaad White, TB, RB18
49. T.J. Hockenson, MIN, TE3
50. Alvin Kamara, NO, RB19
51. Miles Sanders, CAR, RB20
52. James Conner, ARI, RB21
53. Kenneth Walker III, SEA, RB22
54. Alexander Mattison, MIN, RB23
55. Justin Herbert, LAC, QB6
56. Justin Fields, CHI, QB7
Our next wave of talent covers a big chunk of the fourth and fifth rounds and includes several intriguing names. Watson is one of my favorite breakout candidates, as the 2022 second-round pick is Green Bay's clear top offensive target. ... Hall's value took a hit with Dalvin Cook's arrival, but he's back practicing after recovering from a torn ACL and his impressive rookie season suggests he's a future fantasy star. ... White is another favorite target of mine, as the 2022 third-rounder is Tampa Bay's clear feature back. ... Kamara is 28 years old and will serve a three-game suspension to start the season, but his receiving chops will keep him in the weekly RB1 mix once he returns. ... Walker would be much higher if Seattle hadn't spent a second-round pick on RB Zach Charbonnet. ... Mattison is in the RB2 mix with Cook now in New York. ... Herbert and Fields both have elite upside.
57. Diontae Johnson, PIT, WR24
58. DJ Moore, CHI, WR25
59. Mike Evans, TB, WR26
60. Terry McLaurin, WAS, WR27
61. James Cook, BUF, RB24
62. Javonte Williams, DEN, RB25
63. Cam Akers, LAR, RB26
64. Darren Waller, NYG, TE4
65. Mike Williams, LAC, WR28
66. Marquise Brown, ARI, WR29
67. Tyler Lockett, SEA, WR30
68. Drake London, ATL, WR31
69. Brandon Aiyuk, SF, WR32
70. George Kittle, SF, TE5
71. Kyle Pitts, ATL, TE6
72. Dallas Goedert, PHI, TE7
73. Deshaun Watson, CLE, QB8
74. Trevor Lawrence, JAC, QB9
75. David Montgomery, DET, RB27
76. Isiah Pacheco, KC, RB28
77. J.K. Dobbins, BAL, RB29
78. Dalvin Cook, NYJ, RB30
This gigantic tier includes the entire sixth round and then some. There are solid, safe veterans at each position (including McLaurin, Lockett and Kittle), but also several intriguing candidates for a breakout/leap (including James Cook, Javonte Williams and Pitts). Like Hall, Williams tore his ACL last season, but he appears set for a Week 1 return. ... Waller and Watson can generally be had in the sixth or seventh round and are perhaps the best values at TE and QB, respectively. ... Dalvin Cook figures to have more value early in the season while Hall gets up to full speed.
79. Christian Kirk, JAC, WR33
80. Michael Pittman Jr., IND, WR34
81. George Pickens, PIT, WR35
82. Brandin Cooks, DAL, WR36
83. Treylon Burks, TEN, WR37
84. Courtland Sutton, DEN, WR38
85. Jahan Dotson, WAS, WR39
86. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA, WR40
87. Khalil Herbert, CHI, RB31
88. AJ Dillon, GB, RB32
89. D'Andre Swift, PHI, RB33
90. Brian Robinson Jr., WAS, RB34
91. Antonio Gibson, WAS, RB35
Looking to fill out your flex spot? You have some options in the seventh and eighth round. They include a few breakout targets such as Pickens, Burks, Dotson and rookie Smith-Njigba at wide receiver, as well as Herbert at running back. ... Cooks has been underrated in drafts all offseason and will be busy as Dallas' No. 2 target. ... Pittman might be in for a short-term dip in value as Anthony Richardson gets up to speed in Indianapolis. ... Dillon is a fun middle-rounds option, as he'd be in for a big leap in value if 28-year-old Aaron Jones starts to fall off. ... Pick your poison between lead rusher Robinson and versatile Gibson in Washington. ... Swift's talent and receiving skills make him the top bet in a Philly backfield that might use three (or more) backs.
92. Pat Freiermuth, PIT, TE8
93. Evan Engram, JAC, TE9
94. David Njoku, CLE, TE10
95. Cole Kmet, CHI, TE11
96. Skyy Moore, KC, WR41
97. Jordan Addison, MIN, WR42
98. Michael Thomas, NO, WR43
99. Jakobi Meyers, LV, WR44
100. JuJu Smith-Schuster, NE, WR45
101. Odell Beckham Jr., BAL, WR46
102. Dak Prescott, DAL, QB10
103. Kirk Cousins, MIN, QB11
104. Daniel Jones, NYG, QB12
105. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA, QB13
If you miss on the top tiers at tight end, you might as well wait a while. Freiermuth, Engram, Njoku and Kmet are similar in value but lack a high ceiling. ... Moore and rookie Addison are positioned for big roles in good offenses. ... Meyers is a sneaky, unheralded PPR option available late in drafts. ... Similar to tight end, this is a fine area to strike in if you waited at quarterback. There isn't a ton of upside here, although Jones might have the highest ceiling, as he adds a ton with his legs and has room to grow as a passer.
106. Zay Flowers, BAL, WR47
107. Quentin Johnston, LAC, WR48
108. Gabe Davis, BUF, WR49
109. Rondale Moore, ARI, WR50
110. Jamaal Williams, NO, RB36
111. Jeff Wilson Jr., MIA, RB37
112. Samaje Perine, DEN, RB38
113. Rashaad Penny, PHI, RB39
114. Jerick McKinnon, KC, RB40
115. Dalton Schultz, HOU, TE12
116. Zach Ertz, ARI, TE13
We're all but done with starters and are now on to filling out our bench with potential flex options and upside targets. Flowers and Johnston are the last of this year's four first-round WRs and, though they have plenty of talent, both might begin their career third in line for targets. ... Moore is a sneaky PPR target, as only Marquise Brown is definitely ahead of him for targets in Arizona. ... Williams gets a boost with Kamara suspended for Weeks 1-3, although he might not be a flex option from Week 4 on. ... Perine is sliding with Javonte Williams set for a Week 1 return. ... Ertz has recovered from a torn ACL and is expected to play in Week 1, so he's suddenly looking like a terrific late-round value.
117. DJ Chark Jr., CAR, WR51
118. Darnell Mooney, CHI, WR52
119. Nico Collins, HOU, WR53
120. Elijah Moore, CLE, WR54
121. Michael Gallup, DAL, WR55
122. Adam Thielen, CAR, WR56
123. Anthony Richardson, IND, QB14
124. Aaron Rodgers, NYJ, QB15
125. Geno Smith, SEA, QB16
126. Russell Wilson, DEN, QB17
127. Zach Charbonnet, SEA, RB41
128. Devin Singletary, HOU, RB42
129. Elijah Mitchell, SF, RB43
130. Ezekiel Elliott, NE, RB44
131. Jaylen Warren, PIT, RB45
132. Tyler Allgeier, ATL, RB46
A few of these wide receivers could prove to be weekly flex options right out of the gate, including Chark and/or Thielen and Collins. ... Moore is a rebound candidate after the 2021 second-round pick moved from the Jets to the Browns. ... Richardson is one of the biggest wild cards at quarterback, as he has a massive ceiling as a rusher but needs to prove he has the passing chops to make it as an NFL starter. ... This tier also includes some of fantasy's top insurance backs, led by Charbonnet and Singletary.
133. Tyler Higbee, LAR, TE14
134. Dalton Kincaid, BUF, TE15
135. Kadarius Toney, KC, WR57
136. Tyler Boyd, CIN, WR58
137. K.J. Osborn, MIN, WR59
138. Parris Campbell, NYG, WR60
139. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN, TE16
140. Greg Dulcich, DEN, TE17
141. Roschon Johnson, CHI, RB47
142. Raheem Mostert, MIA, RB48
143. Gus Edwards, BAL, RB49
144. Damien Harris, BUF, RB50
145. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI, RB51
146. D'Onta Foreman, CHI, RB52
147. De'Von Achane, MIA, RB53
148. Kyren Williams, LAR, RB54
149. Tank Bigsby, JAC, RB55
150. Tyjae Spears, TEN, RB56
151. Jerome Ford, CLE, RB57
We have a few fringe starting tight ends in this range, with first-round rookie Kincaid the most intriguing. Rookie tight ends are generally poor fantasy bets, but Kincaid is ticketed for a big role in Buffalo's elite, pass-heavy offense. ... Toney is one of the biggest head-scratchers in fantasy, as he seemingly has elite skills and is working in a top offense but he can't seem to stay on the field (he's battling another injury). ... It's unclear who will emerge as the Giants' top wide receiver, but Campbell is perhaps the best candidate. ... Okonkwo impressed as a rookie and could settle in third in line for targets in Tennessee. ... Dulcich is fading with Adam Trautman seemingly the Broncos' starting tight end. ... Johnson posted elite efficiency behind Bijan Robinson at Texas and is a terrific late flier considering Chicago's wide-open RB depth chart. ... The Miami RB room is also tricky, although I'm not as optimistic about Achane as most due to his 5-foot-8, 188-pound frame. ... We have a few more insurance plays here, including rookies Bigsby and Spears, as well as second-year backs Williams and Ford.
152. Allen Lazard, NYJ, WR61
153. Hunter Renfrow, LV, WR62
154. Zay Jones, JAC, WR63
155. Jonathan Mingo, CAR, WR64
156. Chase Claypool, CHI, WR65
157. Curtis Samuel, WAS, WR66
158. Jayden Reed, GB, WR67
159. Romeo Doubs, GB, WR68
160. Van Jefferson, LAR, WR69
161. Rashod Bateman, BAL, WR70
162. Kenny Pickett, PIT, QB18
163. Matthew Stafford, LAR, QB19
164. Jared Goff, DET, QB20
165. Gerald Everett, LAC, TE18
166. Sam LaPorta, DET, TE19
167. Jelani Woods, IND, TE20
168. Tyler Conklin, NYJ, TE21
These are the last of the skill guys you should be considering in the late rounds. Second-round rookie Mingo could rise as high as first on the Carolina depth chart. ... Reed and Doubs are battling for the No. 2 job behind Watson in Green Bay. ... Pickett (the only QB selected in the first round of the 2022 draft) is in line for a second-year breakout and well worth a late flier.
169. 49ers D/ST, SF, DST1
170. Steelers D/ST, PIT, DST2
171. Bills D/ST, BUF, DST3
172. Saints D/ST, NO, DST4
173. Dolphins D/ST, MIA, DST5
174. Cowboys D/ST, DAL, DST6
175. Browns D/ST, CLE, DST7
176. Jets D/ST, NYJ, DST8
177. Patriots D/ST, NE, DST9
178. Packers D/ST, GB, DST10
179. Justin Tucker, BAL, K1
180. Daniel Carlson, LV, K2
181. Evan McPherson, CIN, K3
182. Harrison Butker, KC, K4
183. Graham Gano, NYG, K5
184. Jason Myers, SEA, K6
185. Tyler Bass, BUF, K7
186. Jake Elliott, PHI, K8
187. Brett Maher, DEN, K9
188. Matt Gay, IND, K10
189. Panthers D/ST, CAR, DST11
190. Bengals D/ST, CIN, DST12
191. Younghoe Koo, ATL, K11
192. Eddy Pineiro, CAR, K12
Wait until your final two selections to select your kicker and defense.
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